The “2024 problem,” two and a half years onTransport shortfall outlook revised from “about 34%” to “7–25%”

The “2024 problem” refers to the overtime cap that took effect on Apr 1, 2024 for motor vehicle driving work, including trucks, buses and taxis. Even with a special-clause Article 36 agreement (36協定), overtime is capped at 960 hours a year. The limits that apply in other industries (under 100 hours in a single month, an average of 80 hours or less over several months, and no more than 6 months a year over 45 hours) do not apply to driving work.

On the same day, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revised the Improvement Standards (改善基準告示). Truck drivers’ on-duty hours (拘束時間: from the start to the end of work, including breaks) were cut from 3,516 hours a year to 3,300 in principle, and from 293 hours a month to 284 in principle. The rest period (休息期間) between shifts changed from “at least 8 consecutive hours” to “11 consecutive hours as the norm, never below 9.”

For buses, on-duty hours are in principle within 281 a month. For taxis, they are within 288 a month on day shifts (299 before the revision) and 262 on alternate-day shifts (隔日勤務). Rest periods for bus and taxi day shifts are now 11 consecutive hours as the norm, and 24 consecutive hours as the norm after an alternate-day shift.

Before the cap took effect, the government projected that transport capacity would fall about 34% short in FY2030. MLIT revised that outlook while drafting the Comprehensive Logistics Policy Outline (総合物流施策大綱) for FY2026–2030, approved by the Cabinet on Mar 31, 2026.

According to draft recommendations from an MLIT study group, about 14 points of the 34% had been broadly overcome, thanks in part to measures taken for the “2024 problem” (transport demand also fell by about 12%). A fresh assessment found that FY2030 could still see a shortfall of about 7% on average and up to about 25% (170 million to 720 million tons). Countermeasures are expected to deliver 25.7 points in total, including shorter waiting and loading times (+7.5 points), better load efficiency (+6.6 points) and a new modal shift (+6.4 points).

The shortfall has shrunk, but the outlook still allows for nearly a quarter of transport capacity going missing at worst. Note that the old “34%” figure has already been superseded.

One reason drivers’ on-duty hours run long is “waiting for cargo” at shippers’ warehouses and factories. Since July 2017, drivers have been required to record any wait of 30 minutes or more caused by the shipper in their trip records.

The government set a target of keeping waiting, loading and similar time to 2 hours or less per trip (in principle 1 hour or less per handover) on 50% of truck trips nationwide, and in April 2025 made it a standard for judging shippers and logistics operators. On freight rates, the share of contracts that broadly meet MLIT’s “standard freight rates” rose from 35% in the FY2021 survey to 53% in the FY2024 survey (Japan Trucking Association and MLIT data).

On Apr 1, 2026, the second phase of the amended Logistics Efficiency Act (物流効率化法) began. Shippers above a certain size (90,000 tons or more of freight handled a year), truck operators (150 or more vehicles) and warehouse operators (700,000 tons or more stored) are designated as “specified operators” and must draw up medium- to long-term plans and file periodic reports. Designated shippers must also appoint a chief logistics officer (CLO, 物流統括管理者).

The two Truck Business Fairness Acts (トラック適正化二法), promulgated on June 11, 2025, are also coming in stages. In April 2026, rules began for shippers who use illegal unlicensed “white-plate” trucks, along with a duty to make efforts to keep subcontracting to two tiers. Making truck business licenses renewable every 5 years, and restricting fares and charges below a “fair cost,” are to take effect within 3 years of promulgation.

Bus services are being cut as drivers run short. In a survey by the Kanto District Transport Bureau of the 282 municipalities in its area with route buses (reported March 2025), 65.6% had routes reduced or discontinued between April 2021 and December 2024. The share naming “driver shortage” as a reason rose from 63.9% in FY2023 to 85.4% from April 2024 onward. The survey covers Kanto only, not the whole country. The Nihon Bus Association estimated in October 2023 that the country would be about 36,000 drivers (28%) short in FY2030.

Taxis show signs of recovery. According to MLIT data (published by the Japan Federation of Hire-Taxi Associations), the number of corporate taxi drivers fell steadily from 371,245 in FY2009, bottomed out at 214,972 in FY2022, and then rose for two straight years to 224,428 in FY2024.